Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Raccoon (6 years old)
Finding food when we travel
Maddie (3 this month)
Missing home when we travel
Sleeping!? Sleeping is not on the list for either of my children?! That, in itself, is a miracle. The lack of sleep has been on my worry list for many years. These days, if I am not fully rested it is my fault, late night blogging and all. Who knew this day would come! Hooray!
Monday, January 4, 2016
Furloughs are tough times with joyous sparks every now and then. Today was one of those days. Church where my dad is pastoring, then an afternoon at the beach. La playa! Not warm like ours, but that smell, the sound of waves, that is the same the world over. I am grateful for today's refreshing beauty. And I am grateful for this extraordinary life we lead.
Caleb goes back to school today. All I can think about is his time at school ticking down. We leave for the East Coast mid-February. We are about to disrupt our children's lives once again. Our lives. Schedules and food and beds and all the little things that make up an ordinary life. It is enough to overwhelm me at times.
God has this under control.
Maybe my new word should be breathe. :)
I took some time (maybe last year's words did help!) to look back at my previous WOTYs, starting in 2012, listed below. I feel happy that I have chosen a WOTY ever since starting this blog. Yay me! I often am more of a starter than a finisher when it comes to projects. So here they are, in chronological order:
DO IT NOW
Sunday, January 3, 2016
by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
In reading this book, or trying to, I realized something. My life is not conducive to paper books anymore. On my phone, I've never struggled to finish a book, being able to read during odd moments and in bed when the lights are out. But when limited to a physical copy, it took me 2 months to get 100 pages in. I am still interested in the book, but have accepted that, at this point in my life, I will not finish it. Because I had to look at the physical copy to write my review, it took me another month to get to this post.
Apart from my problems with the format, I thought it a bit slow paced, but I have nothing to compare it to, having not read another "serious book about psychological research" as the author himself describes it. Granted, it is a non-fiction book about a forecasting tournament, but I felt like it kept circling around the same information, like a newspaper article:
My team beat the government experts!
My team beat the government experts by themselves,
My team beat the government experts by themselves, then in teams!
My team beat the government experts by themselves, then in teams, with a bit of training!
And so on.
Relevant to the subject matter, I realized that I will probably never choose to spend an hour or two a day reading the news about geopolitical events in order to be semi- to mostly accurate about what will happen in the future. Not my gig. I'm more likely to have my nose buried in a book about the past. On that note, his remarks about the history of medicine were terribly illuminating. I wonder what else we accept untested.
As a Christian, I did find it fascinating that no matter the training and intelligence, no human is ever completely accurate. This makes God's test of prophets, that what they say about the future be 100% true (Deut 18:22), a sound one.
Our desire to reach into the future will always exceed our grasp.
"I have been struck by how important measurement is to improving the human condition," Bill Gates wrote, "You can achieve incredible progress if you set a clear goal and find a measure that will drive progress toward that goal... This may seem basic, but it is amazing how often it is not done and how hard it is to get right."
...broadly speaking, superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and--above all--self-critical. It also demands focus. The kind of thinking that produces superior judgment does not come effortlessly. Only the determined can deliver it reasonably consistently, which is why our analyses have consistently found commitment to self-improvement to be the strongest predictor of performance.
Machines may get better at "mimicking human meaning," and thereby better at predicting human behavior, but "there's a difference between mimicking and reflecting meaning and originating meaning," Ferrucci said. That's a space human judgment will always occupy.
In fact, in science, the best evidence that a hypothesis is true is often an experiment designed to prove the hypothesis is false, but which fails to do so.
But then the train of history hit a curve, and as Karl Marx once quipped, when that happens, the intellectuals fall off.
Stepping outside ourselves and really getting a different view of reality is a struggle. But foxes are likelier to give it a try. Whether by virtue of temperament or habit or conscious effort, they tend to engage in the hard work of consulting other perspectives.
"All models are wrong, the statistician George Box remarked, "but some are useful."
I received a free copy from Blogging for Books in exchange for my honest opinion.
Friday, January 1, 2016
But slowly, sloooooowly, we seem to be turning a corner. Tonight he ate three chicken legs, made with teriyaki sauce. Seeing him devour a meal was enough to make me cry. Raccoon told me that if he'd known the food in the US was going to be so different, he wouldn't have come. My heart agrees with him.
It has been a hard road. Things were better but they are bad again. Please, Lord, help us find things that work. Before we travel East in February. May this new year be a good one for Raccoon.
*What is a resistant eater? It's not just picky. It's not a discipline problem or a lack of food training. It's someone who can taste everything and feel everything in the food. Something that would be unnoticeable to a regular eater is like a spoonful of chili powder to them.
Monday, December 7, 2015
I heard something on TV today that stuck with me (my paraphrase):
"The tragedy is when people can't see what they already have."
And a few years ago, a pastor shared what he says when his kids whine:
"No, you don't have to, you get to."
I was thinking about these things tonight because I should really get up, out of bed, and exercise.
Ugh, do I have to?
No, but I can. I have a healthy, complete body, family, warm housing, plenty of food (too much!), internet, TV, technology, etc., etc., etc.
That first quote? The speaker said it's the cure to self-pity. So off I go, first to snuggle with my son, then to work my butt off. Ha ha.
Because I get to.
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Life feels a little uncertain right now. But I have no doubt that the Lord has stored up good for us and it is coming. We have leapt out in faith in the past and are leaping again.
I hope, as a writer, that I will also make the leap. See this post on my writing blog if you're curious.
Monday, November 23, 2015
His one request for this year was lots of presents, big and small. I do think about materialism and knowing the true reason to celebrate and being thankful and all that, but seeing his little disappointed face last year made me want to do things differently this year. I remember the excitement as a child of seeing a big pile of packages under the tree on Christmas morning. Raccoon gave away over half his toys before we left and he's collecting change in an old juice jug at this very moment to help the poor. So I think he's got it, and will be okay even if he does get a little spoiled this year.
Thankfully, we are in the US, where stuff is easy to come by. Hello Dollar Tree. While the kids were distracted, I piled things into our cart. I ended up with 64 items consisting of some things we needed for the house, a few decorations, and lots of little presents for them.
When we got home, Kitty fell asleep and Raccoon settled in with a movie, so I smuggled the bags in from the car and dumped it all on the bed. I sorted and counted. They are 6 and 2 so there must be the same number of gifts for each, of roughly the same size.
Okay, here is a confession. As a child, I loved wrapping presents. Tonight, after about 10 presents, I peered at the large pile on the bed and wondered... do I really have to wrap them all? Where did all the fun go? Why do I just want to go to bed?
Ha ha. I am apparently an introvert in all areas of my life except present wrapping, and then to be trapped in a room by myself with yards of paper and piles of presents turns me into Scrooge.
My solution? I put everything into bags and will continue later.
There will be a huge pile of presents under the tree this year, even if I do have to wrap every.single.one.of.them. And someday when you're a daddy and your little boy or girl looks at you, maybe you'll remember this Christmas as one of your favorites.
Sunday, November 22, 2015
There is just us.